It's the common thread that connects the everyday Joe on the street to the real-life G.I. Joe in combat — satellite communications power GPS and enable communications around the globe. And with the growing reliance on SATCOM to do everything from navigating to work to providing reconnaissance on the enemy, its future is heavy with expectations and uncertainty.
The relationship between government and industry is changing as connectivity becomes more critical — requiring more SATCOM bandwidth — and as technology evolves. No longer is the government the leader in space operations; that's a realm now dominated by a commercial industry launching satellites and handling mission control. Much of it is done in partnership with the government. But with no U.S. space shuttle program currently operating and American satellites aging beyond their life cycles, it's industry that largely is filling gaps widened by the insatiable demand for bandwidth.
With a military that increasingly is deployed to remote locales in smaller, lightweight teams — teams that don't have a lot of heavy-duty communications equipment — meeting troops' communications needs is a growing concern for the Defense Department. And as they try to figure out the best way to do that and the role industry should play, insiders on both sides are watching closely for any decision that may indicate the future.
Perhaps the biggest decision: Whatever is the outcome of DoD's Analysis of Alternatives, an effort spearheaded by the Air Force but involving all of the military departments. The AoA, which was expected to begin last fall but got a greenlight only in late December, will study DoD's options for replacing its Wideband Global SATCOM program, a constellation of satellites that will see its 10th and final launch in 2019. WGS provides the military with SATCOM central to intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, as well as command and control; however, even when the full constellation is launched, it won't be enough to meet growing needs.
Commercial SATCOM is expected to play a major role, but there's enough uncertainty to make many in industry question where to invest and what to develop.
"When you're talking about our wideband mission, there's not a whole lot in that mission space that hasn't been supported by commercial or that can't be done. … For the most part our wideband mission on WGS, which is basically a commercial satellite with some extra capabilities rolled in, it could be supported by commercial," said Eron Miller, chief of the Defense Information Systems Agency's SATCOM infrastructure directorate. "One of the taskers [for the AoA] was to come up with the optimum mix of COMSATCOM and MILSATCOM. It's not a straight formula … we tried to look at the requirements on a region-by-region basis, how much requirement we had, how much we expected, just in general from wideband."
Already, many aspects of SATCOM operations have been ceded to the commercial sector. Launching satellites now is almost exclusively an industry activity — WGS-8, the most recent to go up, was lofted atop a United Launch Alliance Delta IV rocket in December — along with control and some provision of bandwidth from commercial satellites. Now there's discussion of industry taking over operation of government satellites like WGS, and, like in the IT market, a marked move toward managed services.
"Instead of the DoD just buying bandwidth and setting up their own systems, they're buying a complete service very much like you do on your cellphone or your internet at home," said Rick Lober, vice president and general manager for Hughes Defense and Intelligence Division. "This stuff has been talked about for years, but I think with recent changes in leadership … [officials] have really been open with industry, having open working meetings. What that all seems to be leading to is the AoA, or what comes after WGS."
Coupe or minivan? Determining the way ahead
The AoA is not the only way DoD officials are determining the path forward for SATCOM. In the Air Force, Pathfinder pilot-like efforts are exploring what's possible and what's best in terms of efficiency and performance. The Pathfinders also are part of future planning, including helping anticipate requirements that will emerge down the road and require quick response.
"As part of the [Pathfinder I] effort, we'd identified a need over AFRICOM and a very specific use. By the time we got through the process, that user had moved to a different location. So we actually had the satellite sitting idle for a little while until we found another use and we were able to draw on that satellite capability," said Bob Tarleton, director of the military satellite communications systems directorate at Air Force Space Command's Space and Missile Systems Center.
As Miller pointed out, it may be impossible to predict the future, but examining each region and their respective requirements separately will help inform decision-making for the future. That evaluation will be part of the AoA, and programs like the Air Force's Pathfinders also keep officials forward-leaning when it comes to SATCOM.
"With Pathfinder II we'll have a little bit more of a global aspect and not necessarily be tied to that user in Pathfinder I or that organization of Pathfinder I," Tarleton said. "That's kind of where we're looking at in our Pathfinders, is how can we get commercial industry, where can they support us, do they have the capability to meet our requirement? And then how can we get that more efficiently and not necessarily tied to leases like we tend to do right now with commercial SATCOM?"
It probably wouldn't hurt to look to other organizations that have long-standing relationships with industry and several years of experience with managed services — like NASA, where the majority of spending goes to the commercial sector in various forms. When it comes to the large systems, it's all done through contracts and partnerships with industry, said Steve Jurcyzk, associate administrator of NASA's space technology mission directorate.
The shuttering of the U.S. space shuttle program served as a catalyst for NASA to contract out commercial crews, Jurczyk said, and that laid the path for working with industry on some very far-reaching goals going forward.
"Right now the only way to transport crew to and from the International Space Station is Soyuz, so we buy seats from the Russians; we pay a certain amount per seat. Commercial crew gives us two domestic providers of crew transportation services in the post-shuttle era. That also gets us out of the operations business — with the shuttle we had responsibility for operating the shuttle; through commercial service contracts they're delivering a service that includes everything from the hardware and software to the operations," Jurczyk said. "We have some lofty goals moving forward. One of them is human exploration of the solar system, which is beyond the low-earth orbit, and eventually crewed missions to Mars. So we're going to continue to look for industry capabilities that are evolving and how to take advantage of partnerships to most effectively and efficiently achieve those lofty objectives."
DoD officials, too, are looking to industry with hopes for efficiency and for cutting-edge technology that meets mission demands. However, to pass muster, industry still will have to do so on the Pentagon's terms — meeting their well-defined requirements and unique on-the-ground needs.
But defining those requirements and needs? That's one of the biggest areas of uncertainty — and one of the biggest reasons the AoA and programs like the Pathfinder are under serious scrutiny from industry and government alike.
"What are those key thresholds that determine whether it should be a high-throughput satellite investment, a whole satellite, or whether it should be a small satellite, or whether we don't have enough requirement to justify a large investment so we're just going to continue spot-market leasing?" Miller said. "It's the same kind of decision you make every day if you have a new family. If it's just you and your wife, you can probably have a two-seater convertible you can speed around town in. Once you have the first kid you have to get a sedan, and once you get to the fifth kid you have to get a minivan. Either way you have to make sure you get the right vehicle to support your family, and in the same way, we have to make sure we make the right investment in space technology to support the mission set we have."
